Modeling the US presidential election

Here’s a good survey of the diversity of models aimed at the United States presidential election this November.  It’s fascinating to see what goes into each approach: polls, performance in primaries, various economic indicators.

One has many moving parts:

Lewis-Beck and Tien’s “Jobs model” uses five variables: whether or not an incumbent is running, the incumbent’s popularity rating according to the first July poll by Gallup, Gross National Product (GNP) growth between the second quarter of the election year and the last quarter of the previous year, growth in jobs over the first 3.5 years of a president’s term, and one for the closeness of the relationship between the incumbent president and the incumbent party’s candidate.

Most of these show Obama winning:

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