Population movements

More refugees will appear in the next decade, claims the relevant United Nations agency.  A fascinating yet sad prediction, in part because it identifies major drivers in classic futurist style:

human displacement caused by conflict is becoming compounded by several factors.  They include climate change, population growth, urbanization, food insecurity, water scarcity and resource competition.  All of these causes, says the UN agency, interact with each other, increasing instability and conflict, and forcing people to move. [emphases added]

The forecast also relies on demographics to an extent, a field often considered one of the most reliable predictors.

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