Looking over the next decade

An April Institute for the Future meeting reflected on major trends for the next decade.  It’s an interesting set,  “six fundamental shifts defin[ing] a landscape of change”:

  • Hyper-urbanization: From strategies of enclosure to open strategies for the shareable city
  • Deindustrialization: From pipeline infrastructures to agile energy ecosystems
  • Dematerialization: From large-scale manufacturing to just-in-time manifestation
  • Social Production: From institutional wage labor to networked micro-contributions
  • Information Intensification: From information overload to cognitive prosthesis
  • Biomolecularization: From individually responsible intelligent organisms to complex ecosystems of biologically distributed intelligence

The same meeting also offered a nice way of thinking through the gap between present and future trends, which they call the two-curve problem:

We find ourselves facing a gap between the familiar past and an alien future. Our incumbent path is predicated on trends that may well have reached their peaks, yet the emergent path has not yet taken shape. The props of our historical strategies—open spaces, cheap fossil fuel, abundant natural resources—are in decline. But new alternatives are not yet ready for prime time. 

An interesting gap.

Leave a comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: