Revisiting The Limits to Growth

One scholar revisits a classic 1970s futurism work, and apparently finds much of it still depressingly relevant.

The work is The Limits to Growth (1972), and an Australian physicist says it won’t be too far off the mark by 2030.  According to Smithsonian,

The [LtG] business-as-usual scenario estimated that if human beings continued to consume more than nature was capable of providing, global economic collapse and precipitous population decline could occur by 2030…

Turner compared real-world data from 1970 to 2000 with the business-as-usual scenario. He found the predictions nearly matched the facts. “There is a very clear warning bell being rung here,” he says. “We are not on a sustainable trajectory.”

Note the big arc here:

Why “apparently”?  Because the Smithsonian piece doesn’t link to a study.

Now, we can find older work by Turner on this topic.  There’s a 2008 podcast, a 2008 paper (pdf), and a 2009 podcast.  Is there something more recent?

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