Ways we think badly about the future

David Pollard describes ways we handle futures thinking badly.  It’s a useful, sobering set, specifically focused on scenarios:

[There are] five systemic human predilections that render the product of such exercises more or less useless:

  1. Believing the future is predictable: What actually happens turns out to be well outside any and all the scenario ranges that were planned for (not “better” or “worse” than the scenarios, but utterly different in unforeseen ways).
  2. Believing the future will continue and accelerate current trends: We have an irresistible tendency to predict that the future will be much like the present only much more so (the “Jetsons syndrome”).
  3. Believing change will come soon but overall will be modest: We tend of overestimate the speed of change in the short run and underestimate the full extent of change over the longer term.
  4. Believing we can prevent, mitigate and otherwise control future events: We tend to wildly overestimate the degree of control we (including our ‘leaders’) have over the changes (political, economic, social, behavioural, ecological, educational, medical, scientific, even technological) that sweep over us. No one is in control.
  5. Believing that centralization works: We tend to believe, irrationally and in the face of their record of colossal and continued failure, that centralization and unification will make things better, when it only makes them less agile, less democratic and more vulnerable. Even now the Wilber cult is calling for a “World Federation” that mirrors Cheney’s “New World Order” (and, fortunately, is just as unachievable).
#1 springs from his opening evocation of Taleb’s black swan.  #2 is a good read on the limitations of extrapolation.  #3’s aphorism is a handy one.  #4-5 are good leads into discussing practical action in response to a futures exercise.

The whole post is rich for covering a variety of other topics.  Well worth reading.  Check out the narrative exercise, for instance.

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