Scenarios for Iran conflict

What would future conflicts between Iran, the United States, and Israel look like?  The Oil Drum offers four scenarios, with an emphasis on the Strait of Hormuz and military technology.

Here’s the prompt:

Can an armed conflict erupt in the Strait of Hormuz? How can it come about? How wide can it develop? For how long can it disrupt commercial traffic? 

And the visions:

  • Scenario I – Direct engagement from Iran on commercial vessels at the Strait.
  • Scenario II – Direct engagement from Iran on military vessels in the Persian Gulf.
  • Scenario III – Military engagement by NATO on Iran
  • Scenario IV – No military action

The method involves breaking down possible strategies, using game theory interpretations of each actor.  This is different from the classic Wack method (selecting drivers, building a matrix, etc.)

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