Extending trends

When does a single story suggest more of the same?

Consider this analysis of climate change in the Mediterranean basin.  Rainfall has declined, sometimes sharply, in some areas:

Notice that one of those regions is Syria, now enduring some degree of civil war.  Water problems aren’t the only cause, but can be seen as a significant driver.

Now consider the rest of the map.  What about Jordan, Morocco, southern Spain, Montenegro, southern Turkey, Greece?  Should we think about events in those nations with an eye towards the kinds of stresses we’re seeing explode in Syria?

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