A scenario template

One good framework for scenario construction comes from Nate Silver.  He’s trying to suss out different outcomes for the Republican presidential primary, and offers five different possibilities.

What interests me is the formula used for each one, uniformally applied:

What Happens Next — The Short Version

What Happens Next — The Long Version


The Evidence For:

The Evidence Against:

This is a nice template for writing scenarios.  It could also be used during an exercise.  Imagine presenting a group with partially completed scenarios in this form, then asking participants to complete them using research and brainstorming.

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