Looking for the Web curve’s top

Maybe the Web is about to plateau, then crash, argues the head of Forrester research.

Several reasons for this interesting (and sad) forecast.

First, mobile devices: increasingly central to human experience, and not very Web-centric.

He said technology is migrating away from the PC/Desktop model, as well as what he called the Web cloud.

Colony asked LeWeb attendees to consider “what we will hold in our hands 5 years from now.”

Second, apps: instead of the browser, people will flock to apps.

…the so-called App Internet, which offers a “faster, simpler and better Internet experience.”

The App Internet market is worth $2.2 billion, according to Forrester Research.

And decision makers at 41% of companies are now moving away from Web-based software toward the App Internet, Colony said.

Third, social media on the Web has finished expanding.

…adoption of social media in urban areas was now extremely high and “running out of hours and people.”

Declaring, in effect, that we are socially saturated.

That means “we are in a bubble,” he said, adding that a post-social world was on its way that would “sweep away some of the nonsense like Foursquare.”

Colony is articulating Sir Tim Berners-Lee’s nightmare.

I’ll read the speech itself next.

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