Media trends

Here’s a useful set of present trends for extrapolation, focused on media.  They’re from AR&D, and dubbed “disrupting megatrends”:

  • The Personal Media Revolution
  • Social hyperconnectivity
  • News as a Process
  • Movement of Ad money to “Promotions”
  • The Shift from Wired to Portable
  • The Shift from Bundled to Unbundled

#4 was the only strange one for me, so here’s the explanatory text;

— This Megatrend, perhaps more than the others, is why any realistic view of the health of traditional media reveals decay at the core. By 2016, Borrell Associates projects that money spent by businesses on the Promotions category will triple the amount spent on advertising, which is a two-edged sword for legacy media companies. On the one hand, this is money moving away from traditional forms of advertising. However, there’s also a huge opportunity here as stated above. And again, the Evolving User Paradigm comes into play here, because every year that local businesses experiment with new opportunities, the better and more sophisticated they get at it.

Before those trends get carried into the future, the author offers a very interesting prediction for next year.  2012 will seem happy for media, but that’s not good:

There’ll be record political spending [elections], which will mask the very real decay of the mass media business model. Everything will appear to be “working.” Why explore new opportunities, the thinking will be, when we’re looking at potentially a record revenue year? Contrary views will seem insane, which is what makes the year so treacherous.

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